Fall From Grace:

The industrials were at one point earlier this year neck and neck with technology. Those days are long gone as the XLI has slipped to the 7th best actor of the major 11 S&P sectors. That skid can be seen on a 3 month time frame of those same 11 groups, and it has fallen to the 9th best behaved, and one of just three which are DOWN during that span (notice real estate and utilities are the best behaved and may explain why markets have been somewhat fragile since). FDX is still in disarray off 40% from most recent 52 week highs, while peer UPS is just 9% off its most recent yearly peak. TTM has fallen 14 of the last 16 weeks, AGCO which until late last month a beauty of a chart is now in bear market mode. GVA is down more than half from its 52 week highs, without the courtesy of a 2:1 split (humor stab). CAT is looking at a 5 week losing streak down 28% from recent peaks. This is a time to favor cash, in any area of the market. If a sustained uptrend is to persevere in the near term you can afford to miss the first 3-5% recovery.

Preparing For Descent:

The relationship between crude prices and airline stocks, has not been as important as it used to be. Many say it is a factor of airlines being able to hedge away costs, but whatever the reason may be, the PRICE action is telling you that. AAL for one has been more than cut in half since a bearish WEEKLY evening star candle was completed the week ending 1/26/18 that dropped 8.6%. Former leader SAVE has slumped another 6% this week so far, AFTER cratering by a combined 23% the 3 weeks prior. Names like CPA have bucked the trend, and it may be a buy at the gap fill near the very round par number, but it makes sense to avoid the group. When a space has a lack of leadership, it makes even the winners failure prone.


Some names in the industrial group started underperforming peers, well before the recent onslaught. Below is the chart of ROL and how it appeared in our 8/1 Industrial Note. The stock is now 27% off most recent 52 week highs, and is on pace for a 4 week losing streak dropping 4% the last couple weeks, AFTER a 9.4% slump the week ending 7/26. It has been under distribution since last September and has produced three straight negative earnings reactions falling 10.5, 10.1 and 3.1% on 7/24, 4/24 and 1/23. This one feels heavy.

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