Discretion Advised?
The consumer discretionary space is seemingly in for a very big move. The direction no one can ever be certain of, but the pattern below of a symmetrical triangle, which is considered neither a bullish or bearish one speaks volumes. Couple that with the Bollinger Bands “squeezing”, which is adept at predicting big moves, and one gets the feel that a large move is imminent. Of course the 800lb gorilla in the room, AMZN by far the largest holding in the XLY, will have a big say which way the ETF is headed. Today it did not participate in the overall rally, and over the last 10 sessions it is making a habit of CLOSING at or near lows for the intraday range, a bearish trait. This week AMZN displayed some weak relative strength lower by almost 3%, and give the XLY credit for finishing the week near the UNCH mark. The groups softness is not exactly new, as it is UNCH over the last one month period, and over the last 6 months is just the 10th best behaved out of the major 11 S&P sectors.