VIX Virus?

Almost every market participant seems to be trying to call a bottom around here, and the ones to being taken somewhat seriously must have a valid reason for their belief. Hope does not count. Bulls can point to the reversal in the GLD, although mild, it is noticeable since the after Mondays turn lower, and follow through came Tuesday falling 1.8% in the strongest volume in the last 6 months. Below is one I have been looking at with the WEEKLY VIX, and its aversion to the round 30 number. Notice how this instrument seems to flare up at the beginning of the year the last 3, and how tops in the WEEKLY VIX tend to occur near 30 on a CLOSING basis. The reason I think Friday is very important, is that 4 of the last 5 have been lower, many reversing, and CLOSING on lows for the daily range (the Nasdaq dropped .9, 1.6, .5 and 1.8% on 1/24, 1/31, 2/7 and 2/21). The Nasdaq would have to break that lousy habit for it to invert that trend, but a CLOSE below 30 would be a big win for the bulls, although very unlikely. Tomorrow should be very interesting, especially the last hour of trading. Will risk managers let longs hold over the weekend?

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