Nearly every summer the wife and I travel to England (she is British). Of course this year it is not taking place. Last summer as we were walking along the Thames, I was a little restless as I had been stalking a breakout in AMD. The setup was as beautiful as some of the scenery, with a bullish ascending triangle one year long in duration. We know the longer the base, the greater the space once a breakout is confirmed.
Wifi was a bit spotty along the stroll, and with each bar we passed I made an excuse that "there must be a bathroom in there" or perhaps there was a "hazy IPA on the menu". Anything to check the price of AMD on my CNBC app.
Of course each time I checked the phone, the 35 pivot was getting closer and closer. It must have been about 2 hours before the CLOSE on 8/9/19, and it firmly took out 35 to the upside. I remember seeing 35.30, 35.40, and with that I confidently hit the buy button, knowing I would NOT be able to check it again before the CLOSE. Following the purchase there was certainly a bit more of a pep in my step.
It was a Friday afternoon, so of course for the WEEKLY breakout to be considered valid it would need to CLOSE above 35 to end the week.
Upon arriving home later that evening, I checked to see how much higher it had ascended in the last 2 hours of the session. I logged onto the computer anticipating 37-38.
Looking at the daily chart above from June-September 2019, I clearly top ticked the stock. The trading gods punished me for my irresponsible behavior. Why had I bought the name "impulsively", I knew where the entry was, but was not going to be able to see the CLOSE (it is something I had not done for years before the summer of '19 or since)? Perhaps it was the length of the base seen below on its WEEKLY chart.
Fast forward to today and AMD is in a familiar place. It again has broken above a long bullish ascending triangle. Is it ready to go on a similar long WEEKLY winning streak the last time it broke above an ascending triangle last November? Of course no one knows, but the measured move now is to 91.
Looking below at the daily chart of AMD shows it a little more clearly how formidable the resistance has been in the 58-59 throughout 2020. Sure it is extended now, but any pullback toward that breakout should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
I was lucky enough to buy some more AMD on Thursday as it pulled back at the round 60 number retesting its breakout for legitimacy. For a little while I thought it may have been deja vu, dating back to last summers failed breakout last August, before powering above in November 2019. It showed excellent relative strength Friday, after INTC's disappointing earnings release. Will I hold this through earnings? I will as long term investors have to do it four times a year. The last purchase should provide some cushion if AMD bungles it own report. Perhaps a retest will occur with a dissatisfying release this Tuesday after the close.
Moral of the story is to never take the market for granted. I should have taken off the original purchase last August as it failed to record the WEEKLY breakout that fateful Friday. Always obey your rules, and like I said this is not something I have done in years, but it taught me a valuable less in opportunity cost.
If you liked what you read why not take a 2 week FREE trial at www.chartsmarter.com.
Nearly every summer the wife and I travel to England (she is British). Of course this year it is not taking place. Last summer as we were walking along the Thames, I was a little restless as I had been stalking a breakout in AMD. The setup was as beautiful as some of the scenery, with a bullish ascending triangle one year long in duration. We know the longer the base, the greater the space once a breakout is confirmed.
Wifi was a bit spotty along the stroll, and with each bar we passed I made an excuse that "there must be a bathroom in there" or perhaps there was a "hazy IPA on the menu". Anything to check the price of AMD on my CNBC app.
Of course each time I checked the phone, the 35 pivot was getting closer and closer. It must have been about 2 hours before the CLOSE on 8/9/19, and it firmly took out 35 to the upside. I remember seeing 35.30, 35.40, and with that I confidently hit the buy button, knowing I would NOT be able to check it again before the CLOSE. Following the purchase there was certainly a bit more of a pep in my step.
It was a Friday afternoon, so of course for the WEEKLY breakout to be considered valid it would need to CLOSE above 35 to end the week.
Upon arriving home later that evening, I checked to see how much higher it had ascended in the last 2 hours of the session. I logged onto the computer anticipating 37-38.
Looking at the daily chart above from June-September 2019, I clearly top ticked the stock. The trading gods punished me for my irresponsible behavior. Why had I bought the name "impulsively", I knew where the entry was, but was not going to be able to see the CLOSE (it is something I had not done for years before the summer of '19 or since)? Perhaps it was the length of the base seen below on its WEEKLY chart.
Fast forward to today and AMD is in a familiar place. It again has broken above a long bullish ascending triangle. Is it ready to go on a similar long WEEKLY winning streak the last time it broke above an ascending triangle last November? Of course no one knows, but the measured move now is to 91.
Looking below at the daily chart of AMD shows it a little more clearly how formidable the resistance has been in the 58-59 throughout 2020. Sure it is extended now, but any pullback toward that breakout should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
I was lucky enough to buy some more AMD on Thursday as it pulled back at the round 60 number retesting its breakout for legitimacy. For a little while I thought it may have been deja vu, dating back to last summers failed breakout last August, before powering above in November 2019. It showed excellent relative strength Friday, after INTC's disappointing earnings release. Will I hold this through earnings? I will as long term investors have to do it four times a year. The last purchase should provide some cushion if AMD bungles it own report. Perhaps a retest will occur with a dissatisfying release this Tuesday after the close.
Moral of the story is to never take the market for granted. I should have taken off the original purchase last August as it failed to record the WEEKLY breakout that fateful Friday. Always obey your rules, and like I said this is not something I have done in years, but it taught me a valuable less in opportunity cost.
If you liked what you read why not take a 2 week FREE trial at www.chartsmarter.com.