Software Suspicion:

Did the big recent moves in some “old tech” software generals forecast the weakness we are witnessing currently? With ADBE not only did  the earnings “miss” just 3.1% on 9/22 disappoint but more importantly, the reaction in PRICE was dismal afterwards. This week it is lower by 7.1% and on pace for its first 4-week losing streak since April-May, and it now trades at 14% off most recent all-time highs. ADSK another mature name that doesn’t get the attention it deserves is nearly in bear market mode lower by 16% from its peak made the week ending 8/27 (prior 3 weeks all CLOSED very taut within just 1.61 of each other). “Newer” software leaders that fell more than 5% on Monday included ASAN TEAM and NET (ASAN fell another 10% Tuesday as it nears the very round par number). Then we can proceed to software names that were already, well soft, before the recent drawdown. The chart below of TWLO is 30% from its 2021 peak, and today broke below a bear flag pattern. Expect more weakness from this play that has already been wobbly.

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