“BRIC” Outlier:
Brazil has weathered the storm thus far in 2022 in fine fashion. The old BRIC acronym may be out of style as it is rarely mentioned much anymore (Russia surely has something to do with this), but percentage gains/losses do not lie. The Bovespa Index is actually higher by 10% YTD, not a typo, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are lower by 22 and 31% respectively into Q4. Compared to “emerging” peers keep in mind the PIN has declined by 11% and the FXI by 32% (EWZ is up by 14%), so Brazil’s PRICE action is to be admired. The WEEKLY chart of the Bovespa shows a very strong 4-week run that began in mid-July as a bullish three-white soldiers pattern was completed the first week of August. The first week in October screamed above a bull flag pattern and the OOPS in mid-June undercutting its 200-day in now in the rearview mirror. This relative strength against the world should not be discounted and remember trends once in motion tend to stay that way more likely than they are to reverse. Look for a year-end charge higher for Brazil.