Recessionary Gestures:
When many market participants tend to be very sanguine sometimes it may be wise to take the other side. I have been taught that consensus is usually correct, but when certain technical aspects take hold one can decide with more confidence regardless of their bias. Now recession chatter is very dampened, and I am no economist (or have any desire whatsoever to be) but certain developments as of late have perked my interest. Both FDX and UPS were beaten up after recent earnings reactions, the latter now at a streak of 4 consecutive losses. FDX is now below its 200-day SMA for a third time since the late October lows, and will it be too tall of an assignment to expect a quick recapture of the secular line? The ratio chart comparing the XLP to the XLY, which we have spoken about recently, is gaining steam for the former, not the best scenario for growth investors. AMZN will certainly have a say in this theme when it REPORTS tomorrow after the CLOSE, and this one may look like it’s ready to roll over on the ratio chart contrasting the top holdings (against PG).