Semi Breakdown:
Just in late June NVDA was briefly the largest company in the world and the headlines splashed around with its $3T market cap. How quickly things could change. It has now lost both of those statuses and currently trades 22% off its most recent 52-week highs (what some would call “bear market territory”). The chart below shows its erratic daily ranges beginning with the bearish engulfing candle on 6/20. Wide and loose trade are hallmark bearish traits, the exact opposite of very taut action on the bullish side. The wild swings are what we tend to see at market tops, not at bottoms where trade firms up and selling gradually comes to a halt. The WEEKLY chart we drew up in yesterday’s tech note could see a move back toward 90 which on the daily would translate to a gap fill from late May. It is looking at a potential rare 3-week losing streak, down 3.4% heading into Friday, and the good news there is it has only occurred 3 times since the start of Q4 ’22 and it did not drop another week. Its MONTHLY chart still shows it an incredible 67% above its 50 MONTH SMA, although it has only come into contact with the line twice in the last decade in 2019 and 2022.