Software Holding the Baton:
Until semis get their act together? It could be a while before the chips firm up, but for the moment software is trying to keep technology afloat. It may be too much to ask, but with everyone talking about seasonality maybe the SMH will put in a positive run before everyone expects them to. After all, the market tries to confound the most. But the ratio chart below tells the story and the IGV is now just 5% off its most recent 52-week highs while the SMH flounders 22% off its own annual peak. This is even with some software names strggling. Of course, MSFT is the whale in the room and it is attempting to remain above the very round 400 number, and notice the bearish evening star pattern completed on 7/9 was accurate in calling a change in the prevailing direction (bearish head and shoulders formation). For a real laggard how about SNOW which is looking for its ninth consecutive MONTHLY decline, not a typo. The very round 200 number has been a thorn in its side starting with August and September 2022 and then the doji in January and the shooting star in February (notice the bearish shooting star at 400 in November 2021 too).