Washed Out:
Energy is a group whose sentiment is so low now it seems like no one is talking about it. Usually, this is a time to take a deep dive into an industry to see what is taking place, for me through a technical lens. I have used this chart in the past from Novel Investor and notice how for the last 10 years the sector has either finished atop the major S&P sectors or in the cellar (twice it was 10th out of 11 in 2017 and 2023). At what point do salty traders start looking toward 2025 for a possible rebound toward being the best like it accomplished in 2016, 2021, and 2022, or will it be a dog once again? The XLE has already surpassed its average decline in September of close to 4%, and could be looking forward to a traditionally strong performance in October and November, easily its best consecutive gains over the last 4 years. Looking at the XLE WEEKLY chart we can see it has lost its 50-WEEK SMA but each time since March 2023 (in squares on the chart) it has quickly recaptured it after keeping in close proximity to it (each time fell below it in the 3-5% neighborhood before rebounding). The WEEKLY ADX signal line is now starting to curl higher (circled on the chart) which has been accurate in having the fund move higher in PRICE since October 2022, sometimes powerfully so. A move above 88 would put a double bottom base with a 94.61 pivot in focus into year-end.