Future Gazing:
On a YTD basis energy continues to perform well as the XLE has risen 6%, the third best major S&P sector actor of 11 with 2 months in 2025 almost in the books (notice the defensive nature with 3 of the top 4 being healthcare, energy, and utilities and tech and discretionary lagging). I have been watching the futures and it seems no one has a bullish take on this and that could be a reason alone for this to move higher, but if the bear flag is taken out I think it could move toward 68 before a double bottom base potentially forms. Looking at some influential names inside the space CVX is just 6% from its most recent 52-week highs while chief rival XOM is double that by 12% from its annual peak. Technically XOM may have a better set-up if it can cleat a 112 ascending triangle pivot which would carry a measured move to 120 (notice the near term tops were called with an evening star and doji on 10/8 and 11/22). Comparing the two giants in the OIH with SLB:HAL ratio chart we see bifurcation too with the former having a superior 2025 thus far against Halliburton. Judging them on their own merit SLB should be overweighted against it as an inverse head and shoulders formation has set up. A break above 43 could see a swift move to the very round 50 number and I feel that quick move from the oversold 30 to the overbought 70 RSI number means something and notice the fine behavior since the doji candle on 12/20 and also the bullish morning star completed on 12/4.