“Energetic” Run Ahead?
Energy has been stuck in the middle of the YTD sector rankings as we head toward the end of Q1 having advanced 2% thus far (interesting is the bifurcation of “value versus growth” with healthcare and staples higher by almost the exact opposite that technology and discretionary are). Below is the daily chart of the XLE, and this week has put up a fight and if the lows hold going forward I think Q2 could be a solid one. Friday’s advance of 1.7% was adequate follow-through after the doji and engulfing candle and sets up well going into next week. Looking at the two behemoths that make up 40% of the fund in CVX and XOM, the former is still in control and its daily chart is sporting a bullish ascending triangle and a break above a rough 160 pivot could see a measured move to 180. The third largest holding in the ETF is COP and on the WEEKLY chart perhaps this laggard (in secular decline since the start of 2024 as seen on the ratio chart) is now buyable with a double bottom made in the 86-87 area from 2 years ago.