Nvidia Makes a Stand:
If the market ever needed a frontman to stand up NVDA would be the one. Wednesday it put the market on notice that it is not fooling around. The stock recorded a long-legged doji candle which is adept at signaling trend changes from the prevailing direction. We all know the phrase, that in new bull markets, fresh leaders rise to the occasion instead of older mature names, but Nvidia will be in the picture going forward. I am not saying a burgeoning bull is awakening by any stretch, but for the bulls to come out of a prolonged hibernation confidently they need to commence with baby steps. I still think this is a market that will take some time to recover as we all have been conditioned to expect V-shaped recoveries, but this is likely to be a trader’s market for some time. Tactical trading, looking for 4-5% moves, as the WEEKLY chart suggests this break below the bearish rounded top will be tough to penetrate to the upside. Thursday will record its seventh straight WEEKLY CLOSE below the 50 WEEK SMA, but the bullish engulfing candle last week felt capitulative. I think one can play this on the long side as long as it remains above the very round par number. If that level is undercut all bets are off. In fact it is a low percentage possibility but on the MONTHLY chart there is no reason it can not travel toward its 50 MONTH SMA sometime in the second half if markets continue a sideways to down path for the rest of 2025 (would probably be in the mid-70s as that upward sloping line would catch up in PRICE). It tends to come into contact with the secular line every few years.