Semiconductor Hiccup:
Just as one was complimenting the reemergence of the semiconductors they recently hit another roadblock at the 200-day SMA, its 4th since the start of 2025. The daily chart below of the SOXX shows it on a current 7-session losing streak and Friday did bounce precisely off the very round 200 number for a mild 1% bounce. But is more pain to come? Its MONTHLY chart needs to distance itself from the 50 MONTH SMA here as last 3 times it touched the secular line it used it as a springboard (notice how the semis overall softness for the last one year can be seen by the decade long break below the uptrend against the Nasdaq). Of course, NVDA REPORTS this week Wednesday after the CLOSE, and it is the second-largest holding in the fund. It is right back to the level of its last release on 2/27 which slumped 8.5%. I do not have a firm conviction on the name heading into the report but the doji candle last Tuesday is something to be aware of (notice the two dojis on 4/16 and 4/22 correctly called a strong upcoming move). For the bull take on NVDA the MONTHLY RSI shows the last 2 times it undercut the overbought 70 RSI number it held firm, unlike the prior 2 that traveled to the 40 area in 2018 and 2022. Top-component AVGO is sporting a bull flag and continues to outshine NVDA, and a break above a 232 pivot carries a measured move to the very round 300 number. It was UNCH on the week with NVDA down 3% and the SOXX by 5%.