Crude Awakening:
Oil enjoyed a nice start to the week Monday surging more than 3% on OPEC news and an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The WEEKLY chart below of WTI shows the commodity has been producing some bullish candlesticks as of late (notice the rare doji candle in September 2023, just the third since the start of 2023, which called the top just above the very round 90 number). Another thing to like is the bullish divergence with the black ADX signal line which is rising powerfully since March as PRICE has fallen/consolidated. Additionally, the distance between the green and red lines is its widest in 2.5 years, and these are likely to start converging shortly. I feel that the recent lows in the upper 50s are a good area to play against and this could go on to retest the break below the bearish descending triangle trigger of 67.50 where it should encounter some fierce resistance. This big move Monday could be nothing more than the start of a dead cat bounce or something more positive. I think many are positioned bearishly and the surprise could be to the upside.