Healthcare Inflection Point:
Within the 11 major S&P sectors on a YTD basis, there is some interesting bifurcation. Atop the leaderboard sits the industrials and in the cellar is consumer discretionary. Notice healthcare is one of only two groups in the red off almost 3% so far in 2025. Below is the MONTHLY chart of the XLV and this is finding too much comfort along its upward sloping 50 MONTH SMA. Perhaps it is gathering some stamina for a “healthy” run, pun intended, but if June or July can not push off it, I think some trouble could lie ahead. The WEEKLY chart shows a bearish engulfing candle heading into Wednesday, down 2%, and as ugly as some of these WEEKLY losses have looked the ETF fights back the very next week. The last 4 WEEKLY losses that all CLOSED hard upon their lows the weeks ending 4/4, 4/18, 5/9, and 5/23 (boxed), never saw any follow-through lower with the next week advancing. A potential double bottom, with a 149.84 trigger, is forming if the XLV can right the ship and remain north of the 200 WEEK SMA. The MONTHLY XBI chart still has my attention as the last time it traded toward the 70 number it bounced hard reaching 93.48, 174.45, 95.02, and 103.37 in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024. A break ABOVE the bearish head and shoulders pattern would be very bullish.