Top Heavy Discretionary:

As we close out January, let’s take a look at the seasonality factor for the XLY. The February-July time period looks to be a fruitful one and to be frank, 1/3 of the ETF is comprised of its top 2 holdings, AMZN and HD. One would be wise to evaluate their charts. AMZN reports after the close, and Thursday it finished right at its rising 200 day SMA. The right side of a possible cup base is taking shape with an eye on the round 2000 number. HD has recorded 3 straight very taut weekly CLOSES, all within just .99 of each other, and that type of coiling action normally leads to explosive moves. The reaction from AMZN Friday should go a long way in determining how February shapes up for the XLY.

Canadian Goose and The Polar Vortex:

I have never owned one of their jackets with the circular logo on the upper arm, but I always wondered if they really kept one warm in frigid temperatures. All I can opine on is the price action. Below is its chart and it reports earnings next week. It did price secondary offerings just days after big earning related gains on 6/15 and 11/14/18. The stock broke BELOW a bear flag in early December, and moves in the OPPOSITE direction are usually powerful. Could it be ready to do the same to the upside with a break ABOVE a bearish rising wedge?


Casual diners felt some mild indigestion on Wednesday on a euphoric tape, and that speaks volumes. Leader LOCO fell 12% during a 5 session losing streak that ended today. TXRH has declined 7 of the last 8 sessions, and EAT is off 13% this week alone. Below is the chart of SHAK and how it appeared in our 1/17 Consumer Report. It now trades 32% off most recent highs and its troubles began well before the rest of the market last July.

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