Chartsmarter Insights

"Refining" Success: The refiners have been enjoying a nice run within the energy space. PRICE action is the best way to verify that and below is a prime example with the daily chart of MPC. The stock is now 11% off its most recent 52 week highs, but that is a bit misleading as it trades just off 8 month highs here. The last 3 1/2 weeks have digested a big move during a 6 week winning streak the weeks ending between 4/11-5/16, with the last 5 of those weeks CLOSING at or near the top of the WEEKLY range. Looking at the WEEKLY chart it is going for its fifth straight CLOSE above the 50 WEEK SMA and it is offering up an add-on above a double bottom trigger of 174.72 in the near term. It is always a good sign when peers are acting well, as you do not want to see a prospective long be the only name doing well and as one can see here VLO has carved out a double bottom with handle trigger of 135.67. If this can get above its 50 WEEK SMA it could be off to the races as it was pushed back there 5 times since the start of Q4 '24. 

Too Much Too Fast? It is hard to be bearish this market and remember there are usually a couple 2-3 month windows each year when you feel like you can really put your foot down on the accelerator and play with size. We have been in the throws of one, but with a nearly 5000 handle move in the Nasdaq the last 2 months has the "easy" money been made? The WEEKLY chart below of the tech-heavy benchmark is coming back to the very familiar 20000 number, which it was unable to take out to the upside in a bull flag formation just several weeks after last year's election. We know that from FALSE moves (bull flag broke downward) come fast ones in the opposite direction. The Nasdaq did not stop declining until hitting briefly below 15000 and touching the 200 WEEK SMA. The DAILY chart here shows last Friday registering a doji candle with a very tight intraday range which suggests some indecision. Additionally notice the Bollinger Bands constricting to some of the tightest levels in the last 6 months which indicates a big move, in either direction, is likely imminent. The last time this occurred in February saw the index break lower in a robust fashion. Remember the market tries to confound the most, so whatever you think is likely to happen be open-minded to the other side. 

"River" Runs Through It: The Amazon in South America is the longest in the world, and it is the largest holding in the XLY at almost one-quarter of the fund. It commands respect not only in the consumer discretionary space but overall market as well. The daily chart below of AMZN is self-explanatory and last week it took charge against the second-largest holding in the fund TSLA. Tesla recorded a bullish harami on Friday with a very tight inside range compared to the Thursday session which slumped 14% on the heels of a TWTR feud with the commander-in-chief. Interestingly, peer RIVN has been holding its own against TSLA since the start of 2025 and is now touching its rising 50-day SMA for the first time since breaking above a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation, often a solid entry point. Getting back to AMZN its WEEKLY chart now has the look of a cup with handle pattern as it now has 4 straight CLOSES above the 50 WEEK SMA and volume trends are very positive. On its MONTHLY chart, it recorded a nice bounce off the 50-MONTH SMA this April, very similar to the move last August which ignited a 5-month win streak. Deja vu?

Time For a Breather: Or will it be something more ominous? The tech leaders which demonstrated leadership since the 4/7 lows feel they have been wounded. I do not feel it is mortal, but nothing goes up in a straight line, and while it is ok to declare that one would need evidence to back the theory up. For a technician that could come with the presence of bearish candlesticks. The daily chart below of PLTR which was the very first to breakout above a double bottom with handle trigger of 99.09 taken out on 4/23. Four doji candles in the last month, which are adept at signaling potential changes from the prevailing direction suggest some caution here. CRWV, the epitome of momentum in this market, completed a bearish evening star pattern Thursday falling 17%. One caveat is that it recorded one on 5/29 too and a bearish dark cloud cover candle on 5/22 and ignored both of those. Is the third time the charm for shorts to feel validated? CRWD recorded its own doji candle today after a nearly 200-handle run from the very round 300 figure. AAPL, trying to remain at a $3T market cap, posted a sneaky doji Wednesday at a downward-sloping 50-day SMA. And AVGO down slightly after hours on earnings and a healthy tech flush may be upon us. 

Nothing "Soft" About It:  Competition is always a good thing, and inside the tech sector software and the semiconductors have been rivals. It has been one sided in softwares favor recently, but the semis in the last 5 weeks have stood up well for themselves. You can see this on the bottom of the daily software chart below of the IGV (did record bearish harami cross, doji candle Wednesday). Now remember ratio charts just show how 2 instruments are acting against one another relatively speaking. On an absolute basis both can be acting well, and that is what is happening at the moment with the SMH and IGV. Each one is keeping the other honest. With the IGV one has to come away impressed how it has digested the huge run off the early April lows. During the 5 of 6 week winning streak the weeks ending between 4/11-5/16 it produced four WEEKLY gains of 7, 9, 5, and 5.5% and all of them CLOSED at or well within the upper half of the WEEKLY range. The last 2 have traded in taut fashion and this week so far which has formed a bull flag, a positive development. These normally resolve to the upside in a continuation pattern, and give this ETF credit after top ten holding CRWD fell 6% after an ill received earnings reaction. It followed a recent pattern of software security stocks not acting well PRICE wise folling a release as we discussed in our 5/29 Technology Note. CRWD was able to bounce near a bull flag breakout pivot of 350 Wednesday.