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The first paragraph is an excerpt from our 10/10 Technology Note: No "Coin" Flip Here: Inside the software group in the Bitcoin arena, two names stand tall. PRICE action between the two is diverging. Of course, we are referring to MSTR and COIN. The former's daily chart below does show some wide and loose action but it is just 6% off its most recent 52-week highs, while COIN trades 41% off its annual peak, not a typo. The ratio chart here comparing the two demonstrates the superiority of MSTR with a surge in May, then a cup with handle breakout in August and it has acted well POST breakout too, just what you want to see if you are bullish MSTR (the divergence may be getting a bit extreme with RSI nearing a white-hot 90 number). Looking at the MONTHLY chart of MSTR one can see the firm action following the cup base breakout, and so far in October it is breaking above a bull flag pivot of 170 which carries a measured move to 290 which could be achieved sometime in 2025. I think one can enter at 185 and use a CLOSING stop below 170. As for COIN, it is below its 50 and 200-day SMAs, and the latter is now starting to flatline suggesting the long-term trend is faltering.

Start Your Engines: The most talked about automobile name on the planet is shifting into overdrive. TSLA rose more than 9% last week, the second time it has done that in the last 3, and it has now nearly doubled in PRICE since the late April lows. That week recorded a bullish piercing line candle and round number theory played a role with a bullish hammer candle off the very round par number the week ending 1/6/23, and the top was a bearish engulfing candle at 300 the week ending 7/21/23. It now looks back in gear as last week inched above a 260 bullish inverse head and shoulders pivot. The MONTHLY chart shows the importance of candles at critical highs and lows with a doji candle in November 2021 which started the symmetrical triangle we now see. A break above here in October would carry a measured move to nearly 600, which could take 2-3 years but for long-term holders, an appetizing target. On the daily chart, one has to admire the tight trade and relatively small trading ranges since the bullish harami cross (doji) on 9/9. A new add-on above a cup base pivot of 271.10 exists and respect that this did not pause much at the upside gap fill from the 7/23 session this week. This should be set for a strong year-end run, although the PRICE path will not be a straight line up. 

"Perhaps the worst will happen, perhaps not, until then, look forward to better things." - Seneca "Value" Showing the Way: It is no secret that on a YTD basis "value" has been outshining growth, and it may gain steam after the earnings miss by NVDA as that will likely need some time to recover. Taking a peak at the ratio chart comparing value to growth via the ratio chart of the VTV to the VUG it shows the former in firm control. This is not a new phenomenon as over the last 6 months this has been happening with a few short hiccups along the way. Peering at the action of the major 11 S&P sectors so far in 2024 it has been dominated by the likes of the financials, utilities, staples, and healthcare. The daily chart below of the S&P 500 shows solid PRICE action with an excellent CLOSE as August is now in the rearview mirror. Additional confirmation of the value over growth theme comes from the S&P 500 over Nasdaq ratio chart too. PRICE which is omnipotent is just below a bull flag pivot, which is not giving up any ground following the recent double-bottom breakout. To balance the very sanguine view, seasonality is not favorable in September (over the last 4 years it has not once CLOSED above where it started with an average loss of almost 6%) and the S&P 500 WEEKLY chart did record the dreadful doji candle last week. 

Resilience: With everything going on at the moment let us give credit to the S&P 500 for climbing back toward all-time highs for a third time in the space of just 2 months. Will the third time be the charm for breaking above the pesky 565 area? Sagging oil PRICES, war, the upcoming election, etc, and the widely watched benchmark is beating to it's own drum. A failed double-bottom breakout above a 5566 pivot so quickly afterward, is always seen as a red flag, but again PRICE is omnipotent and is stating higher ones like ahead. The MONTHLY chart is on a 4-month win streak and since the COVID lows that has occurred four times and each time went on to gain at least one more month. The S&P 500 has gained 9 of the last 10 months and in my opinion its trajectory will take a similar path to the one which advanced 14 of 17 months from April 2020 to August 2021. It feels like many were positioned for seasonality weakness and that has to be unwound just before the start of a historically strong Q4. And the WEEKLY chart now challenging the week ending 9/6's completion of a dubious evening star (doji candle week ending 8/30 as well) and the bearish engulfing candle from 7/19 is speaking volumes about its tenacity.

Was Druck Right? In the latest round of 13F filings a couple of weeks back Stanley Druckenmiller had sold out of his NVDA. To be frank we do not know when he did as 13F information is backward-looking and stale. But he is looking smart as usual today with the 6% plus haircut in the stock following the earnings announcement last night. Notice on the daily chart the bearish engulfing candles on 6/20 and 7/11 were both near-term tops. The latter one's drawdown recorded a move lower of 33.4% from the top to the bottom of the range. The jury is still out over last Thursday's bearish engulfing candle, but today's move will likely have the stock needing time to repair the technical damage. We know from FALSE moves (break BELOW bull flag) come fast ones in the opposite direction. Will the market be able to navigate higher with NVDA, which makes up more than 6% of the S&P 500, floundering? With today's move, it went from the second most valuable company on the planet to third, and is no longer a member of the $3T trifecta market cap club with AAPL and MSFT.