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Mister Softee Firming? With MSFT and AAPL vying for the largest market cap company on the planet (notice there are no $3T names after the recent carnage and Apple nearly crossed the $4T threshold at the end of 2024) the former looks poised to take over the top spot. Technically it looks superior to many of its mega-cap peers as heading into Friday it is carving out a bullish WEEKLY engulfing candle. AAPL on the other hand is showing relative weakness up just 1% this week so far, looking likely to register a bullish counterattack candle, as MSFT has advanced 6% outshining the Nasdaq gaining 5%. Softee's WEEKLY chart has some green shoots and these "Mag7" stocks are out of favor making them good risk/reward here with few believers and a potential bull catalyst setting up. If this can get its act together look for this in the latter half of 2025 to trend toward a double bottom trigger of 455.35. Its MONTHLY chart is bouncing off the 50 MONTH SMA, much like it did in late 2022 and early 2023. Notice how the back-to-back doji candles in November-December 2021 started a 130 handle drawdown and the bearish gravestone doji last December started a current 4-month losing streak (it is down 7 of the last 9 too so the burden of proof is on the bulls).

Bazooka: April may be just a few sessions in but could have felt like a career for many. Indexes surged in historic fashion and perhaps that was the bottom, but let us remember nothing goes up, or down in a straight line. Days like Wednesday will remembered for decades, but I have always been taught that bottoms were a process that occurred in a steady and gradual way. Tops happen in volatile trade, so although I do not think we are out of the woods bulls have to be feeling good about themselves. This market was obviously levered to the short side, and they feasted as of late, and a lot of that was unwound yesterday. How much more needs to be covered? Were longs active Wednesday, many were likely deer in the headlights after the recent tattooing they endured. The next couple of sessions will be very telling. If we can get the recipe of more covering and big organic buying this run has legs. The MONTHLY chart of the Nasdaq below shows a bounce technically in the right area, off the 50 MONTH SMA. There is a lot of air between here and there now and let the tug of war begin. This will be a very interesting Q2 with earnings just around the corner. Will they surprise to the upside, or have the "valid" tariff and "self-inflicted" excuse to fall back on?

Nasdaq Teetering: I believe we are in the later innings of the selloff, and that is not going out on a limb after a more than 25% haircut in the early going Monday from its recent peak just above the very round 20000 number. This is not a garden variety type selloff but it did double in PRICE from the back-to-back doji candles during the last week of 2022 and first week of 2023 from the 10000 figure. One can see my pinned tweet and notice here on the WEEKLY chart at the depths this morning we essentially touched the rising 200 WEEK SMA. My belief is the current environment is very uncertain and trades should be done on a tactical basis. All of the ideas in today's report will be looking for entries on a selloff and take profits with a 5-7% gains. The MONTHLY chart shows 3-month losing streaks are rare in the last decade, with just 3, and each of them appeared near the 50 MONTH SMA where we just came into contact. Each of those occurred at lows, with the exception of the 2022 which kept in close proximity to the secular line before taking off. Bulls can also take small solace that this touch of the 50-MONTH SMA is occurring for the first time after a breakout above the cup with handle, often an ideal entry point (notice the bearish gravestone doji candle that started the pattern in November 2021.

Goldman Fills the Gap:   One of the most prestigious banks in GS is not immune from the overall market carnage. When selling is indiscriminate no one is left alone. The daily chart below shows although it has filled in the election gap, but the gap below the 200 day SMA Thursday leaves a stain. The WEEKLY chart shows the doji (the middle week of a bearish evening star completed the week ending 2/21) which should have had shareholders looking for the exit, or at least playing defense. Without some heroics Friday it will CLOSE below the 50 WEEK SMA for the first time in 17 months. The MONTHLY chart shows the the selling could intensify. Like many names it recorded the doji candle in February (and completed the bearish evening star in March) which was the canary in the coal mine for many. On RSI it can still drop another 15 handles and still be in that area where leaders will tend to floor at 40/45. The MACD is looking likely to have a bearish crossover from a very high altitude and this could in the coming months trend back toward the prior cup base breakout just above the very round 400 number. Of course, this is not a high percentage scenario, but no one has a crystal ball. 

Know Your Holdings:  With the plethora of ETFs that have been born in recent years, it pays to take a look under the hood. Analyzing the semis there are two heavily watched in the SMH and the SOXX. The former has been acting better with the top-heavy fund having NVDA the top component at nearly 20%, and one can see how that hurt the SOXX on the MONTHLY ratio chart below. The more "defensive", or "equal weight" SOXX, Nvidia is not even the top holding. Peering at the SOXX MONTHLY chart though shows it has now successfully retested the cup with handle breakout here from December 2023, and it was just above the rising 50 MONTH SMA. Although the semis have lagged software the last 6 months as seen here, if technology is going to return to a firm uptrend it will need their inclusion. Here is the longer-term MONTHLY ratio chart showing their importance, and it is holding a 5-year plus uptrend. Getting back to the SOXX if investors will be on the conservative side they may have an affinity for the SOXX which includes TXN as its top holding at 8%. PRICE is back to a familiar area of former resistance and bulls will look for that former ceiling to become a floor. And the 3% dividend yield doesn't hurt.