Chartsmarter Insights

Energy Revolution: Energy is making its presence felt in 2025, as the XLE is the best-performing major S&P sector on a one-week, month, and YTD basis. On a one-month lookback period, it is the only group in the black among the 11 major S&P groups. The daily chart of the XLE below shows it approaching a double-bottom pivot of 93.12, and a break above there would also negate the prior 3 lower highs that started last November with consecutive bearish shooting stars on 11/21-22 followed by an engulfing candle that slipped 2%. From there it declined 15 of the next 18 sessions, but it feels like this vehicle is gaining some confidence. This is a waterlogged ETF at the top and CVX looks very strong on the MONTHLY timeframe and if this can break above a cup base pivot of 171.82 in the near term that carries a measured move to 210. We continue to pound the table that this should be overweighted against its major rival in XOM and evidence of that would be the recent break above the ratio chart after a 4-year downtrend. It has a better dividend yield above 4%, and its 13% advance in 2025 thus far is double that of Exxon. Stick with winners. 

Delivery Status:  As the discussion rages on whether a recession is near, remember they are always backward-looking as you will not know until 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, some stocks are better at giving clues than others. The daily chart below of FDX which is now 22% off its most recent 52-week highs from last summer is one of them. Some rare doji candles may be telling the story, and the one last week could be saying the selling pressure is abating. Its WEEKLY chart shows a triple top at the very round 300 number with bearish candles (and just one WEEKLY CLOSE above 300, marginally so the week ending 7/19) at the level and a potential bearish rounded top. Notice the stock has not put up back-to-back WEEKLY gains since the end of last November. UPS has been acting a bit better, up 3% over the last one month period compared to FDX down 8%, (not to mention that juicy dividend yield of 5.5%) but both of them are well below their 200-day SMAs (UPS gave 2 chances to short into the nasty large bearish filled in black candle from 10/24). Both were higher on a soft tape Tuesday, perhaps a tell but their action over the next few weeks could be very important.

Amazon Crossroads:  De"Nile" is not just a river in Egypt. The Amazon in South America is at an inflection point here. The daily chart below shows a bear flag taking shape under the 200-day SMA. We all know the Druck saying that "nothing good happens below the 200-day" but give the stock some credit for keeping in close proximity to the line. A break under the pattern and all hopes of a bullish flavor are off, but if this can break ABOVE and cause a FALSE move this name can get not only discretionary on track but possibly the overall market. This and TSLA have been big drags on the XLY, with the latter more than cut in half from its most recent 52-week highs. If one were to take a look at the AMZN MONTHLY chart March has retested a prior cup base breakout pivot of 188.41 in a pattern that started in July 2021. Bulls could step up right here, but it is a big ask as the mega caps are seeing money rotate from them. Small caps via the IWM were up 1.2% Monday to start the week, doubling the QQQ which added .6%. The IWM has dropped precipitously since late last November but is firming up near the very round 200 number.  

Cathy Comeback? Within the diverse healthcare arena if we drill down into the biotech space we have the "mature" IBB, the more "dynamic" XBI, and one rung lower on the risk angle is the WEEKLY chart below of the ARKG. We know from FALSE breakouts can come powerful moves in the opposite direction, and this one broke firmly ABOVE the 1 1/2 year-long bearish descending triangle the week ending 2/14 jumping 9%. However, the very next week recorded a bearish engulfing candle dropping 8.4% and it is now on a 4-week losing streak. One positive takeaway could be the spinning top last week that bounced in the 22 area. These candles are known for suggesting selling pressure on the downside is abating. Since the lows in Q4 '23 this level has held up 6 times, so perhaps the PRICE memory here could make this a good risk/reward candidate on the long side. There will be plenty of impediments with the ten-year yield now looking like it may have bottomed and starting to build the right side of a double-bottom base. The top 2 components that make up almost 20% of the fund in CRSP and TWST have dubious charts so treat this as speculation and stay small. CRISPR is sporting a bear flag and not responding well to the gap fill from 2/13 and Twist is a bit better with two big bullish engulfing candles and a doji on Thursday (and a bullish MACD crossover). Weakness was forthcoming with the quick failure of the break above a double bottom trigger of 51.41 from 1/22.