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"Old Tech" Shortcomings: The mature, "old tech" stocks once totally in vogue are suddenly becoming shunned. They were not too long ago clamored for their defensive nature and dividend yields, but not any longer as the overall market has been shaken out too. HPQ can not blame the recent market fragilities for its softness. Its weakness began with a bearish dark cloud cover candle on 7/12 and has now shaved one-quarter off its value during a current 7-week losing streak. The stock pays a dividend yield of 4%. ORCL slumped 13% after an ill-received earnings reaction on 9/12 and it looks like it is on a collision course with the very round par number near its 200-day SMA. IBM slumped nearly 5% this week after the prior week recorded a double top just above the 150 level and it is on a 7-session losing streak. Below is the chart of CSCO and on 9/21 it completed a bearish island reversal (following the gap up on 8/17) after announcing it was purchasing SPLK. I prefer to act on these events on more mundane, generic news but this is starting to take on the look of a bear flag as well.

Dangerous Doji: As the market feels heavy currently, I thought I may share in retrospect how I look for potential topping formations in stocks. There is a variety of ways to do it, and sure it is easy to Monday morning quarterback. But this in the future could help to look for certain candlesticks that should put one on alert to at the very least trim positions, if not sell completely. I share 6 examples here of the doji candle and circled each one so everyone could visualize what it looks like. These candles are often adept at signaling possible changes in the prevailing direction. All of them were preceded by uptrends, so they were a clue to minimize holdings and wait one a better future entry. These work in both up and downtrends (NVDA is a possible example as Friday recorded a doji candle after a 100 handle decline. These are very rare and indicate uncertainty and have the same opening and CLOSING PRICES. Let's take a look at several illustrations.

"It's the basics that make you brilliant." - Darren Cahill Rates Matter: The S&P 500 broke below the 8/18 lows last week and the rough 4350 level, which everyone ad nauseam has been talking about as the bearish head and shoulders breakdown. I see it as the symmetrical triangle break, and interestingly both patterns would have a measured move to the 4150 area. The 10-year rate, which is the solid black line on the chart below, is starting to diverge in PRICE from the S&P 500 which until late August climbed in tandem basically. The 7/27 session reversed hard right at the very round 4600 number when the 10-year yield first hit the very round 4% number, and it has felt heavy ever since. Last week fell almost 3% its largest WEEKLY loss since the week ending 3/10 and notice how the widely watched benchmark has fallen 6 of the last 8 weeks, with all six CLOSING at the lows for the WEEKLY range beginning with the bearish engulfing candle the week ending 8/4. Its 50-day SMA is curling lower for the first time since last November and with rates on the ascent, this pullback could be ready to pick up some steam.

"The stuff you own ends up owning you." Brad Pitt Advisors Exposed? When prior correlations break down could that be a sign of a major market event? Of course, no one can predict that but the chart below looking at the NAAIM Exposure Index to the S&P 500 shows a glaring disparity. As the NAAIM fell out of bed recently, the S&P 500 maintained its lofty altitude. Is that a sign that the S&P 500 is about to undergo a sizable correction? The last time that NAAIM reached the very round par number in late 2021 we all know what happened to the S&P 500. From the end of 2021 to October 2022 the widely followed benchmark traded from 4800 to 3500. I am not saying this will occur again but it does give another notch in the belt of bears. For those blaming triple witching on the big index declines Friday, the last two examples on 8/18 and 7/21 were precisely UNCH and just one since April fell more than .4%. I still think we are in wait-and-see mode, and no need to take large positions here until a clear direction is seen with markets. After all the S&P 500 has traded the last 2 weeks inside the strong week ending 9/1 that rose 2.5%.

"The man who chases two rabbits catches neither." Confucius Nasdaq Bides Its Time: Perhaps a better way of saying that would have been that it took a well-deserved break in August. The MONTHLY chart below of the Nasdaq could be looked at through whichever lens you lean on after last month's CLOSE. For the melancholy bears, they would point out the bearish hanging man candle (which could also be viewed as a bullish hammer) which did come in heavy volume, not typical for a summer doldrum August. In fact, looking at the MONTHLY chart below, I wonder about the reason for the volume expansion overall since the start of 2020. Getting back to the PRICE action, sanguine bulls would state it is now the sixth straight MONTHLY CLOSE at highs for the MONTHLY range. Those looking ahead to the rosy seasonality trends that traditionally start in Q4, and markets do tend to bottom in mid-September and we are basically there now. I think the best investors always pay attention to the downside and the WEEKLY chart is a bit concerning as it has fallen 5 of the last 8 weeks with all 5 decliners CLOSING at lows for the WEEKLY range. In my humble opinion, last week's lows must hold or we could easily trend lower into year-end and form a double bottom on the daily chart.